Del Beccaro: Why Trump vs. Biden election will be closer than experts predict

On election night 2016, the polls were clear, Hillary Clinton was going to be the big winner, possibly by a landslide.  That did not happen.  Now, to be honest few are willing to tell a pollster they support President Trump for fear of being bullied and harassed.  Today there is actual violence if you wear a MAGA hat or button that says you support the President.  Terrorists have made it clear—say you support the Democrats or we will make your life miserable.  That is how a totalitarian nation operates—and we are in the middle of a Civil War, whether the media wants to admit it or not.

“All of the above can be summed up in the June 2020 Gallup poll. In that poll, 91 percent of Republicans approved of President Trump’s job performance, while just 2 percent of Democrats approved. That represents a spread of 89 percent between the parties. That divide is not new.

When Obama eked out his reelection victory in 2012, the spread between the parties was 84 percent.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen polling shows that President Trump’s approval rating is roughly the same as Barack Obama’s reelection year approval rating in July of 2012, i.e. there were exactly even on July 10 (45 percent) and July 15 (48 percent), Obama up 2 percent on July 14 and Trump up 1 percent on July 3 (47 percent-46 percent) with their support coming mainly from their own party.”

This will be a close election at the end of the day.  I believe President Trump will win.  But to win, we need to work hard and do the basics—voter contact.  Trump is doing his part to provide leadership, energy and responsibility—he needs our help to continue the fight.

Tom Del Beccaro: Why Trump vs. Biden election will be closer than experts predict

It should be no surprise that we have such diverse predictions in what I call this moment in time: The Divided Era.

By Tom Del Beccaro | Fox News, 7/16/20 

Former Trump 2016 campaign manager Corey Lewandowski explains why Brad Parscale was moved back to digital side of the 2020 campaign to make way for Bill Stepien.

The 2020 presidential election candidates are set. Some are claiming President Trump will win in a landslide. Some polls, on the other hand, show Joe Biden handily winning.

It should be no surprise that we have such diverse predictions in what I call this moment in time: The Divided Era.

It is rather more likely that the 2020 election will be quite close. Here are the two major reasons why.

1.  Our recent elections have all been close because we are that divided.

Our last true landslide was Reagan’s 1984 reelection victory – 58.8 percent to Walter Mondale’s 40.6 percent. Of late, we have had nothing but close elections. Tight elections are hallmarks of divided eras, such as during the late 1800s known as the Gilded Age. In 1876 and 1888, for instance, two presidents lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College.

In our time, Bill Clinton won two terms. However, neither time did he get 50 percent of the vote. Indeed, in his first election, he got just 43 percent of the vote in a three-way field. His successor, George W. Bush, lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College in disputed fashion. Bush then won reelection with just 50.7 percent of the vote, a mere 2.4 percent more of the vote than John Kerry.

Barack Obama won his first election with 52.9 percent of the vote – a historically low figure.  Obama’s reelection vote total then slipped to 51.1 percent of the vote – a rarity for winning incumbents. By contrast, Reagan’s, Clinton’s and even Bush 43’s reelection winning percentages rose.

In 2016, of course, President Trump lost the popular vote. That marked the seventh straight election no president received 53 percent of the popular vote – a streak not duplicated since the Gilded Age. The 2020 election will have to buck that deepening trend not to be close.

2.  Most Democrats no longer vote the private sector economy.

There was a time when both sides voted the economy. That dynamic prompted Clinton advisor James Carville to say “It’s the economy, stupid.” Today, however, Democrat voters have different priorities.

Consider the 2018 midterm election results. Yes, most times a president’s party loses seats during the first midterm election. In 2018, however, the economy had been experiencing strong economic growth. But that didn’t stop voters from handing the House over to the Democrats.

Even at the height of the historically strong pre-COVID-19 economy, in February of 2020, according to Gallup, only 27 percent of Democrats thought the economy was getting better – obviously a more partisan than economic view.

Plainly stated, most Democratic voters no longer vote the private sector economy.

Today, government is their economy. They care more about the Supreme Court’s ideological makeup than the unemployment rate. They want socialist justice from the Courts, government pensions, income security and even jobs from government.

Overall, the Democratic party has moved significantly to the Left and the socialist wing of the party, the Warren-Sanders wing, is alive and well.

So, even if the economy recovers between now and election day, Democrats will not be lured to vote for President Trump. Democrats want him out at all costs because they have to control government to get what they want.

Just as divided as 2012

All of the above can be summed up in the June 2020 Gallup poll. In that poll, 91 percent of Republicans approved of President Trump’s job performance, while just 2 percent of Democrats approved. That represents a spread of 89 percent between the parties. That divide is not new.

When Obama eked out his reelection victory in 2012, the spread between the parties was 84 percent.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen polling shows that President Trump’s approval rating is roughly the same as Barack Obama’s reelection year approval rating in July of 2012, i.e. there were exactly even on July 10 (45 percent) and July 15 (48 percent), Obama up 2 percent on July 14 and Trump up 1 percent on July 3 (47 percent-46 percent) with their support coming mainly from their own party.

Similarly, just before the 2012 election, Rasmussen polled voters about who they preferred between VP candidates Joe Biden and Paul Ryan. Those two men could hardly be more different. Nevertheless, each polled at 44 percent — a reflection on party loyalty more than the feelings of about each man.

In other words, in this Divided Era, if you ask a Democrat for whom he or she will vote, the answer will almost assuredly be a Democrat and Republicans will do the same for their own.

That means the presidential election will be decided by three things: (1) by the enthusiasm of the two parties, (2) Independents and (3) the battleground states.

On the first point, it is worth noting that Joe Biden, according to the Washington Post/ABC polling, has a historically low enthusiasm rating and, according to several polls, Biden voters are voting much more to oust Trump than because they want Biden. However, not liking the other guy did not sufficiently help Bob Dole, John Kerry or Mitt Romney defeat Clinton, Bush or Obama.

In sum, based on recent history, we can expect the popular vote to be close with the winner getting around 52 percent. Based on the party divide, Independents hold the key now more than ever.

Finally, given that twice Republicans have won the presidency while losing the popular vote in the last 20 years, battleground states also hold the key – and all of the above indicates the results of the 2020 election will likely be closer in this Divided Era than most currently think.

About Stephen Frank

Stephen Frank is the publisher and editor of California Political News and Views. He speaks all over California and appears as a guest on several radio shows each week. He has also served as a guest host on radio talk shows. He is a fulltime political consultant.

Comments

  1. Harley D. Waters says

    HEY JOE, How long have you been in Government??? so you have failed us in the past, so you will fail us in the future??

  2. John Steele says

    Trump will win and it may be bigger than expected. The choice is clear.. communism vs freedom and America.

  3. Really??? says

    With Seattle, Portland, Baltimore, D.C, Atlanta, and L.A. you see what the cities and nation will look like under the Marxist / Open Border politicians.

    Think about it.

    How much more can we take before the back of society is broken forever?

    That is the choice with this election.

  4. Winning is one thing. But I am concerned that unless it is a “landside” or overwhelming support for President Trump, George Soros and his like have plans to for VOTER FRAUD on only electoral states. If there is a close count, that will not be difficult. I believe Soros has been working on this since the last election and he has it down to a science by now.

    In that case, President Trump has already answered the question. No, he will not accept the result of the election. This is what he said in 2016, and he is right. Without scrutinizing the result, we may certainly not be able to call the election fair and open.

    It is comical to see the question asked of President Trump, when it is the Democrats that never have been able to accept the result of the 2016 election, yet they still want to ask President Trump if he will accept the result of this coming election. And why should he??!!

  5. The Casual Observer says

    We need a zillion election observers from the time the ballots are mailed out on October 3 while they’re being received up to election day in a couple days after and then as they’re counted.

  6. William Hicks says

    PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL WIN IN 2020. PERIOD! The hope I see is due to the frantic, aggressive actions of ANTIFA and BLM. IF they really had the election in their pocket, they would be calm as puppies after a big meal.

    BUT that will not be enough. We have to win back The House and keep The Senate for it to really matter.

  7. The Left can get as many “votes” as they need to defeat Trump. If we could guarantee a corruption-free election, I’d predict Trump in a landslide.

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