Republicans Lose Suburbs: Failure to Support President Trump The Reason?

Eric Linder, mentioned in the article lost his Assembly race—he refused to endorse Trump in 2016.  In the Bay Area, Catherine Baker lost her Assembly seat—she refused to endorse Trump in 2016.  In the South Bay of Los Angeles, David Hadley, lost his Assembly seat—he refused to endorse Trump.  In the Central Valley David Valedao lost his congressional seat—in 2016 he refused to endorse Trump.  Were the losses because they were in the suburbs, or that Trump voters did not trust them any more.

“Your average suburban voter has clearly soured on President Trump. But the definition of  “average suburban voter” has changed over the last two decades, as the suburbs swelled. Much of that population growth has been driven by immigrants and lower-income migrants from nearby cities. 

The electoral flipping of the suburbs has been particularly dramatic in Southern California’s inland regions. 

Maybe it isn’t that the suburbs soured on the GOP—but the GOP candidates told a major portion of Republicans they did not want their votes?  Oh, this time Valedao IS supporting President Trump.

Suburban blues: Where Democrats have gained most in California

by Ben Christopher, CalMatters,   9/13/20   

Republicans are in rough shape in California, still trailing in third place behind not just Democrats but also those with no party. The GOP gained a bit on independents this summer, but primarily because more independents were re-registering as Dems.

Also not a new story: The election of President Donald Trump and an increasingly diverse American suburbia have not mixed well.

Remember the “blue wave” of the 2018 midterms, when Democrats nabbed more congressional seats nationwide than any election since 1975? 

It was a dramatic expression of a historic realignment of our politics: 

  • Whiter, rural, less educated districts have shifted ever more reliably into the GOP column
  • Suburbs — once the Republican Party’s base — have cooled on the GOP brand

Your average suburban voter has clearly soured on President Trump. But the definition of  “average suburban voter” has changed over the last two decades, as the suburbs swelled. Much of that population growth has been driven by immigrants and lower-income migrants from nearby cities. 

The electoral flipping of the suburbs has been particularly dramatic in Southern California’s inland regions. 

The most dramatic example: California’s 60th Assembly district, centered around the City of Corona in the western Inland Empire. When Republican Eric Linder won the seat six years ago by 23 percentage points, Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 5 points. 

But in 2016, the district swung. Democrats now topped Republicans — and voters replaced Linder with the current Democratic Assemblymember Sabrina Cervantes. At last count, district Democrats hold at 11 percentage point lead over Republicans. 

The trend away from the GOP may have been supercharged by the state’s housing crunch as younger people, renters, Black and brown Californians — in other words, the Democratic Party’s base — have fled inland seeking cheaper shelter. 

In nearly every cranny of California, Democrats have gained ground relative to the GOP. That’s mostly because the GOP has collapsed.

And those places that have swung most violently away from the GOP?

Those are the suburbs. And no surprise that many of the swingingest districts are also some of the most competitive this year.

About Stephen Frank

Stephen Frank is the publisher and editor of California Political News and Views. He speaks all over California and appears as a guest on several radio shows each week. He has also served as a guest host on radio talk shows. He is a fulltime political consultant.

Comments

  1. They move away because the Republicans tried to “make deals” and were lied to by Democrats (imagine that).

    When the electorate from colleges saw the “real” power was in lies and deception and the “real” candidates were the left who would deliver special appointments and make sure radicals were those appointments.

    The people are begging for stability and lower taxes. When it did not happen they turned to “welfare” and special “grants.”

    The bottom line, when you throw out Billions and promise handouts this is what you get.

  2. William Hicks says

    What “GOP brand”?

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