“Taxifornia 2016” author and California Political Review Publisher James Lacy discusses the potential impact of President Trump’s tax policy and California’s efforts to become a sanctuary state.
Is it racist to argue against sanctuary city policies?
In this video from France 24, California Political Review Publisher James Lacy makes the case that obviously it is not, given cases like Kate Steinle’s 2015 murder.
In a new poll on the eve of two crucial primary votes in Ohio and Florida, Donald J. Trump has a commanding lead among Republicans in California, which is the state with the largest single remaining source of delegates on the path to the Party’s nomination for President.
When matched with his three other contenders: Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Marco Rubio, Trump wins the “closed” California Republican primary with 38.3% of the GOP vote, compared to 22.4% for Cruz, 19.7% for Kasich, and 10.1% for Rubio. Voters registering an “undecided” opinion were 9.6%. Trump’s almost 16% advantage over Cruz is statistically significant and well above the margin of error of the poll, which is 4.8%. The poll results demonstrate that Trump’s standing among Republicans in the Golden State has grown significantly in the last two months. (In January, in a similar poll using a smaller sample size, the Field Organization pegged Ted Cruz as the leader in California, 25% to 23% for Trump.) Trump’s lead is commanding in all four “Board of Equalization” districts across the state, suggesting if the election were held today, that he would win in virtually all of the state’s Congressional Districts and capture all of the state’s delegates.
A total of 172 delegates to the Republican National Convention are up for grabs in the 2016 California primary election, more than 7% of all delegates who will decide the next Republican Presidential nominee, and 14% of the delegates needed to win the nomination.
The poll was commissioned by Landslide Communications. This new Landslide Communication’s California Poll of Republican Presidential Preferences of likely Republican voters in the 2016 primary election is the second such poll to be released. In early February, 2015, Landslide released a similar poll showing Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker leading in the state, with similar results confirmed in a subsequent Field Organization poll a week later using a smaller sample size.
Poll Frequencies, NSON Opinion Research’s Summary, and Demographic Cross Tabs are available for download at the end of this article.
Further Details on Landslide’s California Poll appear below.
California’s importance in 2016 Presidential election to Republicans:
California is a decidedly “blue” state in which Democratic Governor Jerry Brown recently won re-election by over one million votes, bucking a national trend that favored Republicans. And a Republican candidate for President has not won the state of California since 1988.
However, because California is the largest state in the union by population, with 53 Congressional districts, California has a very large delegation up for grabs for GOP presidential contenders at the next Republican National Convention.
There will likely be a total of 2,461 delegates at the 2016 GOP Convention. California is allotted 172 of those delegates, about 7% of the total. Of California’s delegates, 10 are awarded to the candidate who wins the statewide vote. In addition, a candidate who finishes first in any one of California’s 53 Congressional districts is awarded 3 delegates. The state party chairman and two national committee members are also delegates. The winning margin at the Republican National Convention will be 1,230 delegates. Theoretically, a candidate who could sweep California’s Republican Presidential primary election could count on the state to deliver just over 14% of the total delegates needed for victory.
List of Presidential contenders in poll:
Poll participants were read a randomized list of the 4 candidates to choose from.
The poll questions were prepared by James V. Lacy, Managing Partner of Landslide Communications, Inc. Landslide is one of the largest producers of election slate mail in California. Lacy is the author of the book “Taxifornia” and editor and contributing author of “Taxifornia 2016: 14 Essays on the Future of California” available at Amazon.com, and is a frequent guest commentator on California issues on Fox Business News Channel’s “Varney & Company.” Lacy is also an election law and nonprofit organization attorney through his law firm, Wewer & Lacy, LLP, and is a recipient of the American Association of Political Consultant’s “Pollie” Award. Lacy is not associated with any Presidential campaign. Landslide Communications, Inc., has a history of conducting polls in California, including presidential polling and in the 52nd Congressional District race in 2014 between incumbent Scott Peters and Republican challenger Carl DeMaio.
The list used to make the calls was based on a sophisticated, representative election turn-out model for likely Republican voters in the 2016 California Presidential primary election prepared by Political Data, Inc., located in Norwalk, a respected source of voter files.
To account for a slight bias in the delegate selection process that awards a small “bonus” pool of delegates based on the statewide result, the interview list was balanced for region by Board of Equalization District, with the two more Republican leaning BOE districts of four having marginally more interviews reflected in the statewide total than average, to most accurately reflect the opinion of California’s Republican population.
Interviews and data compilation:
The poll questions were completed by 407 likely Republican voters in the 2016 California Presidential primary election based on Political Data’s model. (The Landslide Communication’s sample size is 25% larger than the sample size used by the Field Organization for similar polling in California.) The sample size is considered large enough by NSON Opinion Strategy, a respected strategic public opinion research company based in Salt Lake City, Utah, to offer statistical significance in outcome, with +/- 4.8% margin of error at a 95% confidence level statewide. Telephone survey interviews were conducted statewide over two days from Wednesday, March 9th through Thursday, March 10th, by NSON Opinion Strategy.
A summary of the poll prepared by NSON, along with “frequencies” and “crosstabs” may be downloaded below.
For comment, please contact James V. Lacy at 714-878-6191.
James V. Lacy is publisher of California Political Review.
James Lacy, author of Taxifornia, explains to radio host Hugh Hewitt why the CA primary in June might actually matter in the quest for the GOP presidential nomination:
On Tuesday night, the candidates vying for the Republican nomination for president gathered at the Venetian Hotel on the Las Vegas Strip for the last GOP debate of 2015. Below are some observations from various conservative and Republican leaders around the Golden State:
Arnold Steinberg, GOP Strategist and Pollster
Cruz was aggressive, almost rude; Rubio articulate, but hassled; Carson, talking points; Christie and Kasich, executive but redundant; Fiorina, precise; Paul, sensible. Trump keeps killing Jeb, on auto-pilot to defeat, with kindness. Trump finally acted like the front-runner.
James Lacy, Publisher, California Political Review
Rubio was hands-down the audience favorite, a terrific communicator who bettered both Cruz and Paul in the exchanges, and won the debate. TV viewers should know the live audience was decidedly, almost rudely anti-Trump, but I don’t think Trump will lose any ground at all with his voters, as he countered the Bush “chaos candidate” punches effectively and made his points.
Jon Coupal, President, Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association
When you’ve argued nine cases before the U.S. Supreme Court, a presidential debate seems like a walk in the park. Cruz control.
Celeste Greig, Grassroots Conservative Leader, Publisher GreigReport
No losers; however, Carly Fiorina looked uncomfortable, sometimes angry, no longer impressive, no policy making, some sound bites, interrupting with “ask me a question.” Marco Rubio quite sharp and quick with his answers. Trump did very well with foreign policy, and the need to be tougher to destroy ISIS, and to cut Internet access to terrorist and countries that harbor them. Cruz and Rubio went after each other because both are fast, smart and knowledgeable–a lot of animosity between the two of them.
Joel Pollak, Editor-in-Chief, Breitbart California
Donald Trump had his best night ever, while Ted Cruz got bogged down fighting Marco Rubio, who finally faced tough questions about his immigration policy; no one else broke through. Trump is no longer the frontrunner – he’s the favorite to win the nomination.
This piece was originally published by Breitbart.com
“Taxifornia” author James Lacy discusses concerns about California’s high-speed rail project with Fox Business’ Stuart Varney including cost overruns and tunneling through the San Gabriel and Tehachapi Mountains.
They have been concerned about the surprising rise of outsider Donald Trump, while at the same time the expected GOP pack leader, Bush, has been unable to gain even half as much support in the national polls as compared to top dog Trump. And the concern of so-called “establishment” Republicans was likely only compounded when it was just disclosed that three key, seasoned Bush fundraising operatives have departed the campaign.
“Troubling Signs” is how Politico headlined the news of the recent Bush campaign personnel changes. There was some uncertainty over whether the fundraisers had resigned or were let go, but it was clear that Bush’s official campaign is having serious problems raising enough of its own money in the wake of the Trump juggernaut.
The Bush campaign is clearly going through a round of belt-tightening as Trump continues to rise in the polls. According to the New York Times, just before the three fundraisers made their departure, the Bush campaign had gone through an additional round of staff and salary reductions.
Bush supporters have minimized the apparent growing financial problems of Jeb’s presidential campaign. They say there is plenty of pro-Bush campaign money in the bank.
Politico observes that “Bush’s Super PAC,” which must be legally independent of the official campaign, has had “massive success raising money.” According to Breitbart, “Bush’s Super PAC,” the Right to Rise PAC, raised $103 million in the first six months of 2015, while Bush’s official campaign raised $11 million. The “Bush Super PAC” success in fundraising has even inspired catcalls from billionaire Trump, who has charged that Jeb is hardly independent of the many wealthy donors who have given to it, calling Jeb a “puppet” of its donors during a speech at the Iowa State Fair.
Yet as Jeb’s official campaign fundraising and spending appears to be in some degree of turmoil, a key point missing from news reports about the well-funded independent “Bush Super PAC” that Bush supporters are relying on, is the word “independent.”
Super PACs are a fairly recent phenomena, and an outgrowth of a string of federal court decisions that establish that the Federal Election Commission’s former restrictions on the amount of money and sources of campaign finances to candidate committees cannot be extended to so-called “independent expenditures.”
In return for maintaining independence from an official campaign of a candidate, a Super PAC is allowed to collect contributions in excess of the limits on contribution amounts imposed by the FEC on official campaigns, and can raise funds from sources that are otherwise prohibited by the FEC, such as corporations and unions. But the Super PAC must operate independently from the candidates it chooses to support.
The truth is, the “Right to Rise” PAC is not Jeb Bush’s PAC. Rather, it is an independent political committee of organizers and donors who, for the time being, are Jeb Bush supporters. All it takes to create a Super PAC like “Right to Rise” is to file a simple Statement of Organization, FEC Form 1, under a cover letter that promises the following to the FEC:
“This committee intends to make unlimited independent expenditures, and consistent with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit decision in SpeechNow v. FEC, it therefore intends to raise funds in unlimited amounts. This committee will not use those funds to make contributions, whether direct, in-kind, or via coordinated communications, to federal candidates or committees.”
Thus, “Right to Rise” really isn’t Jeb Bush’s Super PAC. It is rather, an independent expenditure committee of operatives and donors that Trump sarcastically refers to as the “puppeteers,” who favor Bush right now. And since it is indeed legally independent of Jeb Bush, it is not legally committed to support him. An amount like $103 million is not a sum to be invested unwisely.
The “Right to Rise” PAC could decide to support or oppose any of the 17 candidates currently running for the GOP nomination, not just Bush. Should Bush continue to fail to gain traction in the polls, if his support further erodes, and as the primary process proceeds to what some political veterans are suggesting will be a “brokered convention,” this observer suggests that six months from now the “Right to Rise” PAC may not continue to be referred to as the “Bush Super PAC” in the press.
James V. Lacy, a frequent guest of Fox Business News Channel’s “Varney & Company,” is author of “Taxifornia” which is available at Amazon.com
James Lacy discusses with Fox’s Stuart Varney L.A.’s latest attempt to alleviate the drought by reducing evaporation in reservoirs. Their attempts, however, may be actually be increasing evaporation and spawning bacteria contamination.
Jim is the principal author and editor of the new book “Taxifornia 2016: 14 Essays on the Future of California” which is available at the CreateSpace eStore now here: https://www.createspace.com/5497002, and at Amazon and other outlets after Labor Day.
James Lacy, author of Taxifornia, explains to Fox Business’ Stuart Varney how CA’s over-the-top environmental regulations cause the state’s gas prices to soar above the rest of the nation.