Trump Has Big Lead in New California Poll

In a new poll on the eve of two crucial primary votes in Ohio and Florida, Donald J. Trump has a commanding lead among Republicans in California, which is the state with the largest single remaining source of delegates on the path to the Party’s nomination for President.

When matched with his three other contenders: Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Marco Rubio, Trump wins the “closed” California Republican primary with 38.3%  of the GOP vote, compared to 22.4% for Cruz, 19.7% for Kasich, and 10.1% for Rubio.  Voters registering an “undecided” opinion were 9.6%.  Trump’s almost 16% advantage over Cruz is statistically significant and well above the margin of error of the poll, which is 4.8%.  The poll results demonstrate that Trump’s standing among Republicans in the Golden State has grown significantly in the last two months.  (In January, in a similar poll using a smaller sample size, the Field Organization pegged Ted Cruz as the leader in California, 25% to 23% for Trump.)  Trump’s lead is commanding in all four “Board of Equalization” districts across the state, suggesting if the election were held today, that he would win in virtually all of the state’s Congressional Districts and capture all of the state’s delegates.

Donald Trump

A total of 172 delegates to the Republican National Convention are up for grabs in the 2016 California primary election, more than 7% of all delegates who will decide the next Republican Presidential nominee, and 14% of the delegates needed to win the nomination.

The poll was commissioned by Landslide Communications.   This new Landslide Communication’s California Poll of Republican Presidential Preferences of likely Republican voters in the 2016 primary election is the second such poll to be released.  In early February, 2015, Landslide released a similar poll showing Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker leading in the state, with similar results confirmed in a subsequent Field Organization poll a week later using a smaller sample size.

Poll Frequencies, NSON Opinion Research’s Summary, and Demographic Cross Tabs are available for download at the end of this article.

Further Details on Landslide’s California Poll appear below.

 California’s importance in 2016 Presidential election to Republicans:

California is a decidedly “blue” state in which Democratic Governor Jerry Brown recently won re-election by over one million votes, bucking a national trend that favored Republicans.  And a Republican candidate for President has not won the state of California since 1988.

However, because California is the largest state in the union by population, with 53 Congressional districts, California has a very large delegation up for grabs for GOP presidential contenders at the next Republican National Convention.

There will likely be a total of 2,461 delegates at the 2016 GOP Convention. California is allotted 172 of those delegates, about 7% of the total. Of California’s delegates, 10 are awarded to the candidate who wins the statewide vote. In addition, a candidate who finishes first in any one of California’s 53 Congressional districts is awarded 3 delegates. The state party chairman and two national committee members are also delegates.  The winning margin at the Republican National Convention will be 1,230 delegates. Theoretically, a candidate who could sweep California’s Republican Presidential primary election could count on the state to deliver just over 14% of the total delegates needed for victory.

List of Presidential contenders in poll:

Poll participants were read a randomized list of the 4 candidates to choose from.

Poll questions:

The poll questions were prepared by James V. Lacy, Managing Partner of Landslide Communications, Inc.  Landslide is one of the largest producers of election slate mail in California. Lacy is the author of the book “Taxifornia” and editor and contributing author of “Taxifornia 2016: 14 Essays on the Future of California” available at Amazon.com, and is a frequent guest commentator on California issues on Fox Business News Channel’s “Varney & Company.” Lacy is also an election law and nonprofit organization attorney through his law firm, Wewer & Lacy, LLP, and is a recipient of the American Association of Political Consultant’s “Pollie” Award. Lacy is not associated with any Presidential campaign. Landslide Communications, Inc., has a history of conducting polls in California, including presidential polling and in the 52nd Congressional District race in 2014 between incumbent Scott Peters and Republican challenger Carl DeMaio.

Interview list:

The list used to make the calls was based on a sophisticated, representative election turn-out model for likely Republican voters in the 2016 California Presidential primary election prepared by Political Data, Inc., located in Norwalk, a respected source of voter files.

To account for a slight bias in the delegate selection process that awards a small “bonus” pool of delegates based on the statewide result, the interview list was balanced for region by Board of Equalization District, with the two more Republican leaning BOE districts of four having marginally more interviews reflected in the statewide total than average, to most accurately reflect the opinion of California’s Republican population.

Interviews and data compilation:

The poll questions were completed by 407 likely Republican voters in the 2016 California Presidential primary election based on Political Data’s model. (The Landslide Communication’s sample size is 25% larger than the sample size used by the Field Organization for similar polling in California.)  The sample size is considered large enough by NSON Opinion Strategy, a respected strategic public opinion research company based in Salt Lake City, Utah, to offer statistical significance in outcome, with +/- 4.8% margin of error at a 95% confidence level statewide. Telephone survey interviews were conducted statewide over two days from Wednesday, March 9th through Thursday, March 10th, by NSON Opinion Strategy.

A summary of the poll prepared by NSON, along with “frequencies” and “crosstabs” may be downloaded below.

For comment, please contact James V. Lacy at 714-878-6191.

James V. Lacy is publisher of California Political Review.

CA Rep Pres Pri – Frequencies

16′ CA GOP Presidential Primary Poll (March)

CA Rep Pres Pri – Crosstab Tables

 

Comments

  1. JoshaCham says

    Why would I be shocked by this? California being the overwhelmingly Progressive Democrat haven that it is, of course they would support one of their own over the real Conservative in the Presidential race? California is too mired in Progressivism to elect a Conservative.

    • So JoshuaCham, since Progessive socialism is politically suicidal through a consequential economic collapse it causes through its’ “share the poverty”, “social justice” philosophy, ultimately a new order occurs?
      It seems just a matter of time (and misery).

    • AND WHO IS THAT TRUE CONSERVATIVE YOU ARE SPEAKING OF???? PLEASE DON’T TELL ME LYING & CHEATING CRUZ OR RINO RUBIO OR KASICH…. SO WHO’S THE CONSERVATIVE WE GET TO CHOOSE FROM???

    • They voted againt lobby backed career government representing government and special interests with “Ronnie Raygun”. Was a good president as he was not bound with special interest garbage and free to represent the majority.

  2. At least R’s get a voice for POTUS. Our State offices, top 2 votes & I have 2 D’s to choose from for Congress.

  3. Perhaps Trump’s victory will help CA GOP reestablish itself. Right now its lost in wilderness

  4. Glen, the only way the Repubs can come back is to divide this State up. Let the limp wrist liberals have the Coast and the real people of this State have the rest. Then maybe we can have a sane legislature instead of what we have led by that fool, moonbeam!

    • Anziani, it is blaringly obvious that whatever party coming into and holding power in Sacramento WILL NOT split the state for the strategic political factors mentioned in the article. A Convention of States is more likely than the idea you suggest.

    • Further, the “new state” area you mention would need direct access to a waterway to an ocean. If you notice, the existing states all have that feature designed into their boundries. No co-incidence. And no, air or road transportation can’t do it all.

  5. Living in the State of the Fruits and Nuts I do not believe these polls. You can only prove it to me with your Votes. Every State run by Democrats is failing miserably and they need a change of venue. Voting for Trump will bring America back. Get out and Vote for TRUMP!

  6. Prove it with your Votes. Vote TRUMP ALL THE WAY FOR THE USA!

  7. Go Trump 2016, will vote for you in CA.

    • Yes,Trump please come to sfo and hang out with us at Pier 39

    • Agreed. A Trump vote is for the majority, less special interest sacrifing the majority. No one wants career government representing government and special interests while ignoring the majority.

  8. TheRandyGuy says

    As the left goes to the socialist extreme, it is more than ironic they complain about a Trump who espouses the hard right-wing positions on immigration and trade.

  9. Anarchy by the left such as the act we witnessed in Chi-Town is reason enough to bring back the ban on communist and all like groups who wish to usurp the US gov by force….Incivility will not be tolerated and free speech shall remain, the rule of law is and will be enforced……

  10. IF TRUMP campaigned for other Republicans in the state, do you think it would help them get elected??

  11. Ohio, Florida, and all remaining States: Please listen to the rest of the USA! (1) Trump is the only one for the people. (2) Trump is the only one for a strong military (3) for Helping Vet. s (4) , For protecting Sr.s and Disabled SS program,(5) for protecting the 2nd Amendment rights (6) the only one corrupt Wash. DC fears (7) The only one who can beat Hillary (8) the only one protecting our borders (9) the only one not beholding to anyone other than the people (10) The only one not on the take …he is on the give! (11) the master negotiator (12) the only one focused on Gov waist (12) the only one that will stop radical behavior in our country (13) the only one who will defeat ISIS, (14) the only one who will make the world respect us again (15) The only one that knows all of the necessary laws we need to change to bring American jobs back, (16) the only one who can change our Birthing laws, to keep us from being obligated to aliens for a lifetime, (17) the only one who has made his fortune, and now, like many of us Sr.s , just wants to give his expertise to America, to make it great again! Do yourself and this great country a favor and vote Donald Trump, a true visionary, and altruistic person.

  12. If Trump wins CA,…the nomination is locked up.

  13. Edith Falk says

    California will vote for Donald Trump! !

  14. Cruz and Kasich should each concentrate on states where they are the strongest. Rubio should have his name taken off ballots

  15. IF Trump wins California it probably will have little to do with his policy stance than his celebrity. There are a lot of uninformed people in California who will vote for Trump simply because they view him as a celebrity. Celebrity is what got Reagan elected, Schwarzenegger elected, and Obama elected, after his handlers turned him into a celebrity. The same will be true for Trump.

    • Christina McGrath says

      Seriously are you kidding me . California is in big Trouble with Governor moon beem . This country’s political parties are full of it . Trump is saying what the silent majority is feeling thinking and living . We need an outsider to bring back Real Democracy. If we vote for something …almost every time it’s overturned. Where did the fact that all these politicians are supposed to be working for the people . It has been lost . Enough
      Trump 2016 . And yes I am well informed …. we and Europe are being used by the big world order . It is time for REAL CHANGE . NOT WHAT THE HELL WE ARE LIVING NOW WITH OBAMA AND BROWN . MORE TAXES MORE POVERTY NO JOBS . CRUZ IS A PIECE OF CRAP AND THAT IDIOT FROM OHIO OMG MORE OF THE SAME CRAP . WAKE UP . TRUMP 2016

  16. Its about darn time California was taken BACK by the middle class working taxpayers! Enough with allowing those who are here illegally who do not own property do not pay taxes & have zero interest in assimilating into our culture to RUN this state!
    We all have to stop this nonsense of no borders no fairness in our trade deals & freebies going to foreigners! ENUFF!!!
    #TRUMPTRAIN #TRUMP2016

  17. will Rodgers says

    It could be even higher numbers for Trump, since this was taken before Rubio slithered out.

  18. Paul lavallee says

    Trump is treated so unfair in the media especially CNN

  19. After Lieutenant governor Maldonado turned California into an “open primary” state, what are the options for registered Republicans? Zilch and nada. The “hate America” organizations have done a good job.

Trackbacks

  1. […] indicates Trump is widening his lead over his nearest rival, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. According to the California Political Review, which it should be noted is run by some of the same people who commissioned the […]

  2. […] California Political Review reported that in a poll conducted by Landslide Communications, Trump won the California Republican primary with 38.3 percent of the GOP vote, compared to 22.4 percent for Cruz, and 19.7 percent for Kasich. […]

  3. […] California Political Review reported that in a poll conducted by Landslide Communications, Trump won the California Republican primary with 38.3 percent of the GOP vote, compared to 22.4 percent for Cruz, and 19.7 percent for Kasich. […]

  4. […] of the vote, after Kasich and Cruz had withdrawn but were still on the ballot.  (Trump also had a commanding lead in the polls, for what they’re worth, when the race was still in […]

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