Why are people moving to Texas?

Why are people moving to Texas?

This is why:

In Culver City (next to the city of Los Angeles a 1600 sq ft home can be rented for $5200 a month—it just sold for $1,425,000.

A 1500 sq ft home in Plano Texas—MUCH nicer—is assessed at $233,000 and rents for $1850 a month.

Oh, Texas has no income tax, a responsible government.  Ready to move?

Why are Californians moving out in droves to Texas? A trend that goes beyond one year. A two city example.

Dr. Housing Bubble,  2/17/20 

For all of the glamor and glitz and notion that California is indestructible, there is a net migration of California residents out of the state.  And why is that?  Affordability continues to be the driving force for many families looking at a state that has become a renter’s paradise and for those wanting to own, paying $750,000 or a million dollars for a crap shack simply does not make sense.  So people are moving out in droves and the numbers back this up.  California lost 190,000 residents based on the 2018 Census data.  With the new Census taking place this year and housing prices once again being unaffordable, there is going to be a continuation of this trend.  And when you look at the actual prices of houses, rents, and local area incomes it becomes an easy decision for many.  Let us look at the figures.

Goodbye California, Hello Texas

There is definitely a sunshine tax that we pay for living in California.  But for many looking to own a home the “drive to qualify” mentality just doesn’t make sense.  I’ve known many people that work in LA County and purchased nice homes in the Inland Empire only to have a 1.5 to 2 hour commute each day (each way!).  And by the way, the weather isn’t all that great in the Inland Empire.  You might as well buy in Arizona or Nevada if you are doing a mega commute.  People are coming to this realization and the net migration figures show this very clearly.

Take a look at this chart:

Texas is seeing a lot of growth for a variety of reasons:

-Low income taxes

-Growing cities

-More flexibility to build

-Cheaper housing

-Economic growth

What is interesting is that Texas has high property taxes which isn’t such a bad thing.  If all other taxes are low, property taxes being higher would make sense.  Having these reassessed each year also makes economic sense given these go into local area items – schools, etc.  So if you live in the area, everyone should pay a similar rate.  California is hellbent on keeping taxes artificially low for those that bought in the past using the “granny” argument.  I’ve seen people buying a place nearly identical to their neighbor and one is now paying $10,000 a year in property taxes and the other is paying $1,000.  That just doesn’t make sense and ironically these are the people who want government to stay out – yet they want the government to protect them when it comes to artificially keeping property taxes low.  Texas, a state that is anything but liberal and is geared to smaller government has very high taxes and somehow has big economic growth and affordable housing.  Probably something to think about and there is now momentum to undo parts of Prop 13 given most in LA County now rent.   

Let us show this with examples to add some color. Take a look at a couple of rentals in nice areas:

Basic home in Culver City renting for $5,200 a month.  This home sold for $1,425,000 last month and is now up for rent.  It looks like it was listed for $5,400 but it got dropped.  As a real estate investor, not a good return on your investment.      

Take a look at this home in Plano Texas:

The home is assessed at $233,000 for tax purposes.  So do the math here.  The home in Plano is renting for $1,850 (and is 3 bedrooms versus 2).  Just calculate the cap rate or gross rent multiplier here.  This is how out of whack things are.

There are plenty of ways you can compare and measure.  For those that don’t know, people in Plano do rather well on an income perspective.  Based on Census data Culver City median household income is $92,687.  Plano Texas median household income is $94,306.  This is very relevant when you are looking at investment properties or rentals.  Sure you have some households in Culver City doing exceptionally well but the median number tells you a big story that is missed most of the time.    

You can run this analysis on multiple cities and get similar results.  There is a great series on PBS called Lost LA and I recommend people watch it.  You will realize how quickly we turned a wild west area into a glamor market with a little bit of Hollywood glitz.  You will also realize how quickly we pave over gargantuan economic failures and somehow ignore any lessons in history for Instagram filtered realities.  Yet the above numbers are real and the fact that many people are voting with their feet should tell you something.   

D

About Stephen Frank

Stephen Frank is the publisher and editor of California Political News and Views. He speaks all over California and appears as a guest on several radio shows each week. He has also served as a guest host on radio talk shows. He is a fulltime political consultant.

Comments

  1. Christopher O'Leary says

    Win the 70’s and early 80’s Californians started to migrate to Washington State. Now, it has turned into a Marxist cesspool. If they are not careful, that same Marxist taint will begin to make Texas stink badly. And, I do mean STINK! Praying for the inevitable war against common sense will be won by American conservatism!

  2. U.S. Citizens –
    Are you ready to relinquish California to the Socialists and Commies by way of illegal aliens and foreigners from China, Canada, etc. with CASH buying what was the Golden State of the entire U.S. and your home!

    Move to the less-than state of Texas, or anywhere else, and you are giving up a piece of America to EVIL.

    This is all wrong!

    The only way to equalize this mess is for the Federal Government to come in and asset its powers under the Constitution, since all CA Dems are not following the Constitution and representing the American people, the citizens of California.

    Hope and Pray that President Trump can/will be doing just that in the months to come and certainly after his re-election!

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